The scorecard

Every call, counted.

This page tallies every record ever published on this site. Falsified calls stay on the board with the same prominence as verified ones — a track record you can't audit isn't a track record.

Open
04
on record, not due
Verified
00
thesis materialized
Partially verified
00
direction held, criterion missed
Falsified
00
misses stay on the board

Hit rate

No records have come due yet — the first resolution is scheduled for 10 Jul 2027. The hit rate appears here after the first records resolve, computed over everything ever published. It will never be based on a selection.

Calibration

A hit rate says how often we were right. Calibration says whether our confidence meant anything. Each conviction tier carries a stated probability — if high-conviction calls land far from 80%, the confidence is theatre, however good the hit rate looks.

Nothing has resolved yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. A Brier score computed over zero outcomes would be a number without a meaning — it appears here the moment the first record comes due, and it will include every resolution from then on, favourable or not.

HIGH
80%
MEDIUM
60%
LOW
40%
WATCHLIST
30%

The probability each conviction tier commits to. Fixed in advance — these are what we will be scored against.

Resolutions

Nothing has resolved yet. Verdicts land here quarter by quarter as due dates pass — each one with its reasoning, the counter-signal we weighed against it, and the evidence it rests on.

Coming due

How verdicts are reached is documented in themethodology.

Embed the scorecard

boardroom.exchange scorecard badge

The badge reads live from this page and updates itself — including when a call is falsified. Anyone embedding it is quoting the whole record, not a favourable snapshot.

[![boardroom.exchange](https://boardroom.exchange/badge/scorecard.svg)](https://boardroom.exchange/scorecard)

Take the data

Published under CC BY 4.0. Cite it, quote it, hold it against us — that is what a public record is for.

The quarterly scorecard, by email

One email per quarter when records resolve, plus new predictions as they go on file. No other mail.

Confirmation required before any mail is sent. Details in the privacy notice.